This morning's surf report...

 

What about Puaena Point? It's smaller there when it's going off at the NS, right? Need to know we are leaving on Sunday. I gotta find a spot that in not going to be huge. :)

-meanie

yeah, puaena is rideable even when the rest of the NS is pretty much closed (12' to 15'+ hawaiian)

ya puena point is good fun but...GET RENTAL INSURANCE...that parking lot is prime ...breakin-the-car-steal-everything-not-bolted-down area...what with the bushes right there and all EASY escape for thieves...trust me I KNOW...

Surf Report from WetSand...

www.wetsand.com

So... take this with a grain of salt, it's from Wetsand. It is what it is. But it sure looks good!

Today (Tuesday) we still have a good deal of NW ground swell along the California coast, but this swell is on the way out and will back down further Wednesday. Thursday starts out benign, but then sees the nextNW'er build into California coastal waters with Friday the 5th looking bigger. Another NW swell is being tracked for Sunday the 7th into Monday the 8th.

Currently, NW periods are running 14 seconds from 300 degrees. SW periods are running 15 seconds from 230 degrees.

In SoCal, most west facing breaks are seeing sets running chest to at times head high. South facing breaks are running waist to at times chest high.

Northern California and the Central Coast are seeing sets running 2-4 feet overhead at west facing breaks. South facing breaks are running chest to head high.

The tide was low around 4:30 this morning at ~3 feet, runs up to a high around 11:00 AM at ~5 feet, and then to a near zero low around 7:00 this evening. Tidal levels will even out more over the next few days, becoming somewhat slack-water by week's end.

Water temps are averaging 63 in SD, 63 in OC, 62 in LA, 61 in VC, 60 in SB, 60 along the Central Coast and 56 in NCal.

Winds at 5:00 this morning were light from the NNE most everywhere 3-7 mph. Winds should stay light and northeasterly throughout most of the morning, and turn onshore from the west 7-11 mph in the afternoon. Troughing over the region continues to battle it out with a light offshore flow, leaving Wednesday's winds looking similar to today. But then the forecast becomes obscure. Models continue to favor a cut-off low moving over the region Thursday through Saturday, and being cut-off from thejetstream, it's anyone's guess as to just how this low will track. Models seem to think it will position itself south enough over California to create a SSE wind flow over the region with possibly easterly AM winds and SE afternoon winds Thursday through Saturday. In some cases, it looks as though the southeasterly winds could reach 15 mph in the afternoon -- more likely on Friday and Saturday. I'll need to see though how models deal with this cut-off low over the next few days before making a confident call.

Troughing over the region will keep marine layer over SoCal and beach temps in the mid 60s through Thursday. The cut-off low -- mentioned in the wind section -- is, so far, not expected to bring any precipitation to coastal regions, but it should at least keep high clouds over the region Friday through the weekend, and beach temps in the high 60s. Note that some model runs show splotchy precipitation cells over SoCal Friday and Saturday, but nothing too organized just yet. Dealing with a cut-off low, nothing in the forecast is a slam dunk until the low is dang near on top of us. I'll have more details in my next report.

The NW swell has already given its best, and will decline through Thursday morning. Thursday though will see swell start to build. A storm that spun off the coast of Japan late last week stayed at a low enough latitude to through WNW swell our way with hardly any angular spreading decay. This swell has an ETA on Thursday the 4th (the building, sporadic day) into Friday the 5th (the peak day). Short range, 36h models continue to show activity near the Aleutians, which should bring more WNW swell to the California coast on Sunday the 7th (the building day), into Monday the 8th (the peak day). After that, it looks like the next NW swell could be some steep stuff from the Gulf around the 10th or 11th, but that's way too early to call today. In either case, long range WAMs are showing the northeastern Pacific being dominated by high pressure, which would push swell-producing storms far to our north. Seems logical then that no major swells would be on tap from the 11th through at least the 17th of this month, but as with anything gauged off the long range, I'll need more time to see how it all plays out.

Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:

Wednesday the 3rd the NW swell should back off, more along the lines of chest high around west facing breaks. South facing breaks will continue to settle for wrapscraps, running waist+ at direct south facing spots (bigger at SW exposed spots). Winds on Wednesday should be light from the NNE in the AM, and then onshore from the west in the afternoon to 10 mph. Tide is low around 6:00 AM at ~3 feet, and high around 11:30 AM at ~4.5 feet.

Thursday the 4th should start out mild with similar size as Wednesday: chest high in the early AM. Thursday though should be a building WNW swell day as WNW swell comes ashore from the storm that formed off Japan late last week. This should increase WNW (280-degree) swell throughout the day: chest high at dawn, head high by noon or early afternoon, and maybe overhead by the evening. Sets will no doubt be sporadic, and periods should run 16 seconds. Winds on Thursday though are a tough call today as models continue to toss around various scenarios of an incoming cut-off low. My call today is for light, easterly winds in the early AM hours, shifting to a ESE direction throughout the morning, and possibly becoming 15 mph in the afternoon from the SSE. Tide on Thursday is low around 7:30 AM at ~3 feet, and high around 12:30 PM at ~4 feet.

Friday the 5th the WNW swell should fill in better and increase west facing breaks into surf running head high to two feet overhead. Winds will likely be under the influence of the cut-off low with a south/southeasterly influence. Tide looks somewhatslack-water, hitting a high around 3:45 AM at ~4 feet, then ~3 feet low around 9:30 AM, and then ~3.5 feet for a high around 2:00 PM.

Saturday the 6th this WNW swell should drop off to chest to head high.

Sunday the 7th we should see more WNW action come in from the Aleutians. Long range models have been persistent over the past week showing hefty activity swirling into quite the maelstrom around the Bering Sea, Aleutians, and northern Gulf region. This morning's models are temporally closer (0h-36h), showing the same scenario, but with somewhat weaker seas. This should bring WNW swell from 280-290 degrees with 16-second periods. Sunday would be the building WNW swell day with chest high surf in the early AM, and then head high or so mid to late morning...by the looks of things today.

Monday the 8th this swell would completely fill in with head high surf at most west facing breaks, possible a foot or two overhead at standouts. Since much of this is still out on the 36h models, I'll need to see how this plays out tomorrow.

Looking farther ahead, it looks like we could see a smaller trend in NW swell from the 9th onward. Long range models show one storm hitting Oregon early next week, possibly sending some steep angled NW swell our way around the 10th or 11th. That though is a long shot right now. With models showing high pressure dominating much of the northeastern Pacific late next week, it could be a tough time for northern hemi swell-making storms to form. I'll stay on top of it though, and I'll keep you posted.

On a closing note, I want to thank everyone who's taken the time to send me their questions regarding swell calculations and terms used in the forecast. If you're curious about this sort of stuff, I'd like to invite you to check out my Surf Forecasting Guide, which gives simple, step-by-step instructions and explanations on predicting swells.

Until my next report (Wednesday), take care, be safe, smile in the line-up, and have a great week!

—Nathan

So... we should be getting some swell! Anybody have any major plans? Any good road trips planned?

Stoked.

The hobo report...

Holly shit.

Started off the week on a 10' @ 17sec boomer. Checked the around the corner spot... 15-20' inside out a-frame... no way. Not even on my 7'4". Head farther around the corner. 8-12' on the point. Perfect. I had one of those days where everything I did clicked... kinda like being a pro for a day. Undine got a full pigdog cover right off the peak in my face on her 6'2". Sick. Same thing the next day. So sick again.

Midweek the wind and swell were in and out of phase... scored a nice sunset sesh at the a-frame alone. 5-7'

Yesterday. 6' @ 16 sec. Another boomer. I waited for the sun to come out and hit a nice sandbar. Big closeout with a left and right off each end. So nice... 3-4 ft oh and pealing perfectly into the off shores. I took out the 6'0" stubby and carved away. Four of us, spread way out.

Today. Waiting for the sun. 6'@12sec and the winds are calm all day. The beachbreaks will be fun. Expecting HH+ a little.

-skidmoreslough

You were very correct sir... "Holy Shit" was right. Great description.

Yup, this morning was a hoot. Absolute bees knees at County Line today. Offshore, head high sets, and peeling from the top of the point all the way into the bay. So nice. THe sunrise was like a postcard. Water was perfect temp, so clear, just all around a great morning.

Stoked,  So full of stoke right now.

c-st was ....just ok...not nearly as big as i thought it was gonna be...long waits and 10 gazillion guys in the water all jockeying for position...caught a bunch of really good ones and at 10:00 the wind started howling...so i quit...

 saw chango in the parking lot walking the dogs...